The creation of Medr, the Commission for Tertiary Education and Research, represents a step change in the organisation of post-16 education and training in Wales. This blog discusses some of the main challenges facing policy makers on post-16 education and training in Wales. This includes relatively low levels of higher education participation, lower levels of participation in academic education for boys and gaping socio-economic inequalities. It also examines the best ways in which policy could respond. In so doing, it draws on a range of new evidence on post-16 education and training across the UK. This includes the extensive evidence and policy review produced by Wales Centre for Public Policy (WCPP), innovative analysis of inequalities in post-16 education and training produced by WCPP/ADR Wales and joint work between myself and EPI/SKOPE colleagues on post-16 education and training across the UK.
Lower participation in school sixth forms and higher education in Wales
One of the key defining features of post-16 education in Wales, as compared with the rest of the UK, is the lower rate of participation in school sixth forms and higher education. In our recent EPI/SKOPE report, we show that only 35% of 16-17 year olds in Wales are in school sixth forms. This compares with 45% in England, over 60% in Northern Ireland and 63% in Scotland (or up to 79% if you count dual registrations in Scotland). A much larger share of young people are in colleges in Wales (over 50%).
It is highly likely that these differences in type of provision reflect the relative availability of school sixth forms and colleges across Wales. In rural areas in particular, pupils are unlikely to have a significant amount of choice between school sixth forms and colleges, and will probably still travel a large distance to attend a post-16 setting.
This matters as it will likely affect the type of educational qualifications that young people receive. Colleges are more likely to offer vocational courses, whilst school sixth forms are more likely to offer academic courses, such as A Levels. For example, young people in school sixth forms predominantly take A level course, whilst A levels only represent about 28% of courses taken by young people in colleges in Wales. Partly as a result, the WCPP/ADR Wales report shows that over 50% of young people in Wales are doing vocational courses, with 32% registered for A Levels. In England, by contrast, 47% of young people were studying A Level in 2022.
Given these differences, it is perhaps unsurprising that we also see lower levels of participation in higher education in Wales too. As we show in our EPI/SKOPE report, about 37-38% of 18-year olds in England were participating in higher education in 2023. Figures for Scotland are calculated on a slightly different basis, but probably aren’t that far below that seen in England and Northern Ireland. In Wales, by contrast, only about 30% of 18-year olds were in higher education in 2023. There will be many reasons for this lower level of higher education participation, but one of the key reasons will be the greater focus on vocational courses and colleges. Universities are more likely to have admission requirements based around academic qualifications like A Levels.
Crucial to understand the consequences
The fact that more pupils go to colleges in Wales and take vocational course need not be a disadvantage. Indeed, having more pupils in high-quality technical courses learning valuable skills can be a strength. The merits of the Welsh approach therefore depend on the consequences of different education pathways for students and young people.
While the current data don’t show us where learners on vocational pathways in Wales end up, we do see worrying outcomes for some Welsh young people. We have already seen that they are less likely to attend higher education. They are also more likely to not be in education, employment or training (NEET). Nearly 11% of 16-18 year olds in Wales were classified as NEET in 2022-23, compared with 8% in England, 9% in Scotland and 5% in Northern Ireland. Furthermore, the economic outcomes for young people in Wales from working-class backgrounds are quite poor. They are less likely to hold Level 3 or A Level equivalent qualifications (56% in Wales compared with 60-65% in the rest of the UK). They are also less likely to be in employment (71% in Wales as compared with 74-78% in the rest of the UK).
Getting an even deeper understanding of the outcomes and consequences of education pathways in Wales would require more data than is currently available. In particular, it requires education administrative data to be linked with earnings, employment and benefits data from HMRC and DWP. This data is already available in England in the form of the Longitudinal Education Outcomes dataset and is already providing new insights on what shapes educational and earnings inequalities. It should be an urgent priority to make such data available for Wales too.
Concerning levels of inequalities
There are longstanding and persistent concerns about inequalities in post-16 education and training in Wales and the UK. This is evident in all analysis on this subject. The WCPP/ADR Wales report shows that only 15% of children eligible for free school meals are in school sixth forms in Wales and only 9% are taking A Levels. Furthermore, in one of the most valuable features of this innovative report, they show that these inequalities stretch to large difference by parental occupation, parental education and other elements of deprivation. Whilst clearly concerning, it will be important for Medr to continue this analysis and regularly publish socio-economic differences in access to different forms of post-16 education and training. This will drive public debate, and ultimately policy change.
We also see clear socio-economic differences in access to higher education. Our EPI/SKOPE report shows that only about 15-16% of young people from deprived areas in Wales and Scotland attend higher education. In England, this figure is higher at about 20%, but lower at 13% in Northern Ireland. Clearly, there are UK wide issues in enabling the most deprived pupils to go to higher education.
One of the other clear emerging inequalities in post-16 education and training are differences by gender. Girls are much more likely to attend school sixth forms (37%) than boys (30%) in Wales. Boys are more likely than girls to be taking vocational courses. From our EPI/SKOPE report, we also see that boys in Wales are much less likely to go to higher education (24%) than girls (36%), and the share of boys going to higher education in Wales has barely budged at all over the last 15 years.
These differences in education participation are evident all across the UK, and indeed across most economically developed countries. However, because Wales has a lower overall rate of higher education participation, Welsh boys have the lowest levels of participation in higher education across the UK. Again, this is almost certainly connected to the fact that more Welsh boys take vocational courses after the age of 16.
Best policy responses are likely to focus on what comes before age 16
In their extensive review of the evidence, WCPP show that there is actually a lack of evidence on the effectiveness of many schemes to widen participation in further and higher education amongst young people. This is sadly not that surprising. Most of the evidence here shows that it is what happens before the age of 16 that plays the largest role in shaping later education choices. Once you account for prior attainment up to age 16, socio-economic differences in higher education participation and outcomes either vanish or disappear entirely. This suggests that the best way to widen participation in further and higher education is to narrow inequalities within the school system.
Unfortunately, there is clear evidence of persistently high inequalities in the school system Wales, and higher than other parts of the UK. The recent PISA results painted a very worrying picture of the level of reading, maths and science skills in Wales, both as compared with the rest of the UK and the rest of the world. EPI analysis of GCSE results has shown pupils from disadvantaged backgrounds in Wales are about 22-23 months behind in terms of their educational progress as compared with their more advantaged peers, which compares with a smaller disadvantage gap in GCSE results of about 18 months in England. This disadvantage gap has hardly budged at all over the last decade in Wales.
My recent IFS report further argues that higher inequalities in the school system in Wales are unlikely to reflect higher poverty in Wales, a different ethnic mix of pupils, statistical biases or differences in resources. Instead, they are more likely to reflect differences in policy and approach. Moreover, there is very little evidence that ongoing and planned changes to the curriculum, assessments or the school year could make things better or narrow inequalities. Indeed, there is a clear risk that such changes could widen inequalities still further. Without new efforts, a change of policy direction and extra resources to tackle the attainment gap in schools, socio-economic differences in further and higher education will remain large.
Gender differences in education participation and course type are probably even harder to change. Whilst girls do outperform boys in the school system, this difference is not nearly enough to explain why girls are so much more likely to take academic courses or go to higher education. Such differences are more likely to reflect more deep-seated gender norms and attitudes.
Policy conclusions
In conclusion, this wealth of new evidence actually seems to point to a number of consistent key findings and implications. First, Medr should be tracking inequalities in participation and course choices in a regular and systematic way. Such analysis could make use of new linked administrative and census data, should cover as many aspects of inequalities as possible, and should really allow for comparisons with the rest of the UK and other countries. This will inform public debate and create the pressure to narrow these inequalities. Second, we need to develop a better understanding of the consequences of different participation and course choices, and inequalities in those choices. This will only be possible with education administrative data linked to HMRC and DWP data on earnings, employment and benefits. Such data is already available for England in the form of the Longitudinal Education Outcomes dataset. Creating the same for Wales should be an urgent priority. Third, we should be realistic about the effects of participation policies focused on over 16s and young adults. Such policies might shift young people’s participation, subject and course choices a bit on the margin. However, it is what comes before age 16 that has the biggest impact on post-16 education and training decisions. Tackling the gaping and stagnant levels of inequalities in school-level education attainment in Wales would have a much bigger effect on post-16 education and training choices. Welsh Government and Medr should work with schools to mitigate inequalities in pre-16 attainment as a key starting point.
Luke Sibieta is a Research Fellow at the Education Policy Institute and Institute of Fiscal Studies.