The Iran war has been causing ripple effects – economically, politically and societally – across the globe, including on Wales and the UK. These pressures have intensified following Ofgem’s announcement of a 13% increase in the energy price cap from July 2026, raising average annual household bills by over £200.  
 
Wider economic fallout is expected to contribute to job losses across the UK, with South Wales expected to be disproportionately affected due to its concentration of energy-intensive industries (Nation Cymru, 2026).  
 
Rising fuel and transport costs are expected to drive further increases in food prices, with inflation projected to reach 9-10% by the end of 2026 (Food & Drink Federation, 2026). Together, increases in the cost of energy, fuel, and food are likely to intensify cost-of-living pressures and contribute to declining living standards (Office for National Statistics, 2026; Resolution Foundation, 2026). 

In this context, the Wales Centre for Public Policy (WCPP) has been asked by the Welsh Government to convene a roundtable on emerging and projected impacts of the Iran war on the Welsh economy and society, the challenges these pose to Welsh policy makers, and potential policy responses. 

The roundtable will bring together Welsh Government officials, policy makers and independent experts to facilitate discussion across a range of impacts, including: 

• The macroeconomic impacts of the conflict; 

• Cost-of-living effects on households and individuals; 

• The impact on energy security and the net zero transition; 

• Broader societal effect; and 

• The impact on social cohesion. 

The findings of this work will help to translate UK-level analysis and insight to the Welsh policy context and address the gap in published work examining the impacts of the conflict on Wales and to inform Welsh Government monitoring, ministerial briefing, assessment of devolved policy levers, and resilience planning.  

We will publish a series of roundtable outputs, including a series of blog posts over the summer and a summary of key discussion points in Autumn 2026. For any questions about this project, please contact Jack Price.