{"id":21373,"date":"2026-07-13T13:21:01","date_gmt":"2026-07-13T13:21:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wcpp.org.uk\/?post_type=project&#038;p=21373"},"modified":"2026-07-14T13:48:40","modified_gmt":"2026-07-14T13:48:40","slug":"impacts-on-wales-of-the-iran-war","status":"publish","type":"project","link":"https:\/\/wcpp.org.uk\/project\/impacts-on-wales-of-the-iran-war\/","title":{"rendered":"Impact\u00a0on Wales\u00a0of\u00a0the Iran\u00a0war\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The\u00a0Iran war\u00a0has\u00a0been causing ripple effects \u2013 economically,\u00a0politically\u00a0and societally \u2013 across the globe, including\u00a0on\u00a0Wales and the UK.\u00a0These pressures have intensified following Ofgem\u2019s announcement of a 13% increase in the\u00a0energy price cap from July 2026, raising average annual household bills by\u00a0over \u00a3200.\u00a0\u00a0<br>\u00a0<br>Wider\u00a0economic fallout is expected to contribute to job losses across the UK, with South Wales\u00a0expected to\u00a0be disproportionately affected due to its concentration of energy-intensive industries\u00a0(<a href=\"https:\/\/nation.cymru\/news\/job-losses-forecast-for-south-wales-linked-to-fallout-from-iran-war\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Nation Cymru, 2026<\/a>).\u00a0\u00a0<br>\u00a0<br>Rising fuel and transport costs are\u00a0expected to drive further increases in food prices, with inflation\u00a0projected to reach 9-10% by the end of 2026 (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.fdf.org.uk\/fdf\/resources\/publications\/reports\/understanding-uk-food-inflation-report-access\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Food &amp; Drink Federation, 2026<\/a>).\u00a0Together, increases in the cost of energy, fuel, and food are likely to intensify\u00a0cost-of-living pressures and contribute to declining living standards (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ons.gov.uk\/peoplepopulationandcommunity\/wellbeing\/bulletins\/publicopinionsandsocialtrendsgreatbritain\/latest#cost-of-living\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Office for National Statistics,\u00a02026<\/a>;\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.resolutionfoundation.org\/app\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Understatement-of-the-year.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Resolution Foundation, 2026<\/a>).\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In this context, the Wales Centre for Public Policy (WCPP) has\u00a0been asked by the\u00a0Welsh Government to\u00a0convene\u00a0a roundtable\u00a0on\u00a0emerging and projected\u00a0impacts of the\u00a0Iran war\u00a0on the Welsh economy\u00a0and\u00a0society,\u00a0the challenges these pose to Welsh policy\u00a0makers, and potential policy responses.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The roundtable will bring together&nbsp;Welsh Government officials, policy&nbsp;makers&nbsp;and&nbsp;independent&nbsp;experts&nbsp;to&nbsp;facilitate&nbsp;discussion&nbsp;across&nbsp;a range of impacts, including:&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The macroeconomic impacts of the conflict;&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Cost-of-living effects on households and individuals;&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The impact on energy security and the net zero transition;&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Broader societal effect; and&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The impact on&nbsp;social cohesion.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><br>The findings of this work will\u00a0help to\u00a0translate UK-level analysis and insight to the Welsh policy context and\u00a0address the gap\u00a0in published work examining the impacts of the conflict on\u00a0Wales and\u00a0to inform Welsh Government monitoring, ministerial briefing, assessment of devolved policy levers, and resilience planning.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We will publish&nbsp;a&nbsp;series of&nbsp;roundtable&nbsp;outputs, including&nbsp;a&nbsp;series of blog posts over the summer and&nbsp;a&nbsp;summary of key discussion points in Autumn 2026. For any questions about this project, please contact&nbsp;<a href=\"mailto:jack.price@wcpp.org.uk\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Jack Price<\/a>.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>WCPP has been asked by the Welsh Government to\u00a0convene\u00a0an expert roundtable looking at the effects of the\u00a0Iran\u00a0war on Wales. The roundtable will look at the economic and social impacts of the war and what policy options are available for Wales to mitigate some of these effects.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":21380,"template":"","categories":[],"tags":[62],"research-and-impact":[],"class_list":["post-21373","project","type-project","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-economy"],"meta_box":{"lead_author":12254,"authors":[12132,12028,12482],"image":[{"width":744,"height":418,"file":"Economic-impacts-on-Wales.jpg","filesize":697352,"sizes":{"medium":{"file":"Economic-impacts-on-Wales-744x406.jpg","width":744,"height":406,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":53165,"url":"https:\/\/wcpp.org.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/Economic-impacts-on-Wales-744x406.jpg"},"large":{"file":"Economic-impacts-on-Wales-1200x655.jpg","width":1200,"height":655,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":118061,"url":"https:\/\/wcpp.org.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/Economic-impacts-on-Wales-1200x655.jpg"},"thumbnail":{"file":"Economic-impacts-on-Wales-744x418.jpg","width":744,"height":418,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":55046,"url":"https:\/\/wcpp.org.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/Economic-impacts-on-Wales-744x418.jpg"},"medium_large":{"file":"Economic-impacts-on-Wales-768x419.jpg","width":768,"height":419,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":56073,"url":"https:\/\/wcpp.org.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/Economic-impacts-on-Wales-768x419.jpg"},"post-thumbnail":{"file":"Economic-impacts-on-Wales-395x216.jpg","width":395,"height":216,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":17468,"url":"https:\/\/wcpp.org.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/Economic-impacts-on-Wales-395x216.jpg"},"banner":{"file":"Economic-impacts-on-Wales-1386x640.jpg","width":1386,"height":640,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":153583,"url":"https:\/\/wcpp.org.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/Economic-impacts-on-Wales-1386x640.jpg"},"square_thumb":{"file":"Economic-impacts-on-Wales-800x757.jpg","width":800,"height":757,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":118115,"url":"https:\/\/wcpp.org.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/Economic-impacts-on-Wales-800x757.jpg"}},"image_meta":{"aperture":"2.5","credit":"Getty Images\/iStockphoto","camera":"ILCE-7RM2","caption":"Graph Falling Down in Front Of Wales Flag. 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